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Following a decade of strong growth when rapid economic expansion pushed up coal demand, China's coal industry is now mired in a slump, pinned down by overcapacity, declining prices and cheap imports.

In the week ended Oct. 12, Shanxi premium blend coal with heat value of 5,500 (kcal/kg) at Qinhuangdao Port was approximately RMB 635 ($100.61) per ton, down more than 20 percent from the beginning of this year and 30 percent from the same period a year ago, according to China Coal Transportation and Development Association data.

A weakening economy has crimped demand for coal from power stations, metal smelters and construction material manufacturers, traditionally the biggest buyers of the fuel, Wu Yin, vice director of the National Energy Administration (NEA), said at an industry workshop last week.

China's economy expanded 7.8 percent on an annual basis in the first half (H1) of 2012 compared to 9.6 percent in the corresponding period a year earlier. Coal consumption in the first eight months of 2012 reached 2.71 billions tons, up 1.4 percent on an annual basis but down substantially from the 9.1 percent growth rate recorded in the same period last year, according to NEA data.

Rising hydropower output and a sharp growth in imports of the fuel have also affected the domestic coal industry this year, noted Wu.

Surging imports

China was a net exporter of coal until 2009 but by last year had become the biggest coal importer in the world, surpassing Japan. This trend has accelerated in 2012, with net coal imports in the first eight months topping 185 million tons, up 46.3 percent year-on-year and more than total imports in 2011, according to statistics released by the China Coal Industry Association.

Several factors are contributing to China's appetite for imported coal, including transportation bottlenecks, environmental and safety considerations, economic factors and concerns about depleting coking coal reserves, the Washington-based Carnegie Endowment think tank said in a research report earlier this year.

Experts say imports will become one of the biggest challenges to the domestic coal industry as it struggles to remain competitive in the face of a glut of cheap coal that has flooded the global market amid a prolonged economic downturn in developed countries.

Longer-term, tighter environmental rules in Europe will see fewer, more efficient thermal power plants built, while major coal producers such as Indonesia and Australia plan to increase exports. The United States could also start shipping the fuel to Asia as cheaper gas supplies created by the shale gas boom reduce demand for coal in the world's largest economy.

Peabody Energy, the largest privately-held coal miner in the world, in June forecast that China will account for more than 50 percent of the growth in global seaborne coal imports between 2011 and 2016.

Production caps

In response to complaints about low prices from coal producers the National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC), China's central economic planning agency, in August set a national coal production cap of 3.65 billion tons for 2012, an increase of just 3.7 percent year-on-year.

The NDRC also set output limits for the three largest coal producing bases in China. Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region can produce no more than 920 million tons of coal this year, while Shanxi and Shaanxi provinces have limits of 810 million tons and 400 million tons, respectively.

Stimulus measures

Indirect support in the near to medium term is expected in the form of central government stimulus packages, as capital spending boosts demand for coking coal used in steel production and thermal coal in energy generation. More than RMB 1 trillion ($154 billion) worth of infrastructure projects including railways, roads, airports and ports were approved in September.

"These government stimulus packages will support domestic energy consumption to some extent and help stabilise domestic coal prices and demand in the short and mid term," Yang Li'an, an economist, told Interfax on Monday.

Yang cautioned, however, that unless structural reforms of the economy are undertaken soon, demand for coal and energy will again decline once the effects of the current measures wear off, as happened with the last stimulus package launched at the end of 2008.

The economist's comments reflect the views of a growing number of international financial institutions, which are worried that China has not taken enough concrete steps to ensure the healthy development of the economy. Credit Suisse said in a recent research report that China can expect to see "mediocre growth" of seven to eight percent in the coming years.

King coal

The domestic coal industry is in a deep slump but the fuel will remain China's primary source of energy for at least the next two decades, analysts said. Even with current economic downturn and excess production capacity in the industry, the NDRC has set an annual coal output target of 4.1 billion tons for 2015, representing an increase of 16 percent from 2011.

For the past few years China has been consolidating the coal industry to make it stronger and more efficient. Those efforts are expected to continue.

Giant state-backed enterprises are being turned into industry leaders engaged in activities across the industrial value chain from production to logistics and power generation. Small-scale miners that are uneconomical, polluting and have poor safety records face closure.

In a research note dated Sept. 26, Mark Chen, a Hong Kong-based analyst with ABC International, said that as the central government encourages industry consolidation large players including Shanghai and Hong Kong Stock Exchange-listed China Shenhua Energy Co. Ltd. will benefit at the expense of small to medium-sized coal miners.

Massive coal bases are planned for Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region that can be developed through strip mining, which is cheaper and safer than deep shafts. Meanwhile, Beijing is backing large coal-to-chemical projects on a trial basis in the hopes of reducing the country's dependence on imported oil.

"Coal still accounts for over 70 percent of China's primary energy supply and is the only rich conventional fuel resource China has," coal analyst Chen Ruipeng told Interfax. "Coal will continue to dominate China's energy mix for the foreseeable future."