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In a special report on global energy prospects, the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA) warns that expectations for a robust liquefied natural gas industry may fall apart due to bad economics and high transportation costs.
Although the agency expects companies to invest $735 billion on the complex industry by 2035, and thereby double the volume of LNG traded from 330 billion cubic metres to 560 bcm, it doubts the industry will able "to deliver all that is expected" due to soaring costs and diminished returns.
"At the root of this uncertainty is the high capital cost of LNG infrastructure, which creates a strong preference among project developers and financiers for mechanisms that lock in, as much as possible, a stable long-term cash flow," warns the report.
The Asian market, which faces the highest natural gas prices in the world, "have made it clear that they seek more advantageous terms for future purchases, as the current situation is leaving their economies with heavy import bills and serious concerns about industrial competitiveness."
Capital costs for LNG projects, particularly those in Australia, are rising and severely pinching the industry.
About two-thirds of all global investment in LNG is now located in Australia. Three LNG projects are completed and seven are under construction.
The nation's aggressive coal gas business, which employs fracking, has created widespread inflationary costs, undermined environmental safeguards, threatened groundwater resources and created a wave of public opposition with slogans like "Australians uniting to protect our land water."
LNG projects in Norway and Papua New Guinea have also run into major cost-over runs.
Unconventional natural gas has become a global hotspot. It is changing the pattern of the world energy. Shale gas will become one of the three energy resources in the next 20 years. Read More >
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