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The year 2012 will likely see Europe suffer from the hangover of the 2011 sovereign debt crisis. The H1, 2012 is crucial as major repayments come up. What happens in Italy is particularly important as it is the third largest economy in the region and accounts for around a third of the total debt repayments due in Q1, 2011. The crisis in the euro zone is likely to have an impact on oil prices as was witnessed in 2011 through its effect on the EUR/USD exchange rate. In addition, austerity measures undertaken by the regional economies to bring fiscal deficits to manageable levels will continue to have an adverse impact on oil demand growth in the region in the medium-term due to a slowdown in economic growth. IMF now expects euro-area GDP to decline by 0.5 percent in 2012, according to a report by Global Investment House (Global).

Geo-political risk

Oil prices ended 2011 close to $100 per barrel mark as political upheaval in the Arab world outweighed concerns over health of the global economy. The average price for 2011 increased by 19.6 percent to $94.9 per barrel. World oil demand grew by 1.04 percent in 2011 driven by demand in the emerging countries, particularly China. Threat of supply disruptions remained a major theme throughout 2011, particularly with the start of civil war in Libya which saw WTI prices spike above $110 per barrel mark in Q2, 2011. The other dominant event has been the ongoing European debt crisis which threatens to throw a spanner in the global economic recovery. The IMF has already downgraded its estimate for world economic growth for 2012 in view of the prevailing risks.

China is expected to be the main driver of oil demand growth with an expected increase of 0.42 million bpd in 2012. The Chinese central bank increased the banks reserve requirement ratio six times and the interest rates three times in 2011 to curb inflation. However, in a surprising move the central bank cut the reserve requirement ratio in December indicating that the policy makers have turned their focus back on growth in view of the expected slowdown in euro zone and other advanced economies. China is likely to remain the main driver of crude oil demand growth for the foreseeable future despite the expected decline in GDP growth rate to 8.2 percent in 2012, the Global report said. 

The US economy seems to be trudging along despite the headwinds from the euro zone crisis and overhang of high debt and deficit. US unemployment declined to 8.5 percent in December after staying above 9.0 percent for a large part of 2011. The IMF now estimates US economy to grow by 1.8 percent in 2012. Recovery in the US economy, the world's largest oil consumer, will play a large role in determining the direction of oil prices. The US Federal Reserve has said that its benchmark interest rates will stay low at least till late 2014 to spur economic activity and bring down unemployment further.

Oil prices

Global Research expects average WTI crude oil price to be in the range of $95-$100 in 2012 which is also consistent with the Bloomberg Consensus crude oil price of around $98.7 per barrel and close to 2011 average price of $94.9 per barrel. Global's 2011 estimate for WTI was close to the actual price. However, its estimate for OPEC crude oil deviated by 26-34 percent as impact of Arab spring was felt heavily in the regional crude oil prices.

The volatility in 2011 is likely to extend into 2012 as the European debt crisis remains unresolved, Arab Spring continues and unemployment remains high in the US. Meanwhile, new sanctions on Iran and subsequent military drills by the Iranian Navy in the Strait of Hormuz have increased the risk of stand-off between the US and Iran which could severely disrupt oil supplies. The transition of power in North Korea has also increased the geo-political risk with lack of clarity over the direction the isolated country will take.

OPEC production

Political turmoil in the Middle East had a direct impact on OPEC oil production as Libya descended into civil war. Production in Libya fell to 47tbpd in Q3, 2011 compared to an average production of 1.55 million bpd barrels in 2010. However, the shortfall was filled in quickly with Saudi Arabia in particular raising its production to 9.6 million bpd in Q3, 2011 from 9.1 million bpd in Q2, 2011. However, the production in Libya is on the road to recovery as the Transitional National government has taken over.

Saudi Arabia still commands the largest spare capacity of around 2.71 million bpd despite the increase in production in 2011. This holds particular significance at a time when Iran is coming under further pressure because of its nuclear program. European Union plans to halt oil imports from Iran as part of the sanctions.

World oil demand

World oil demand continued to recover, though at a slower pace. World oil demand increased by 0.9 million bpd in 2011 after a strong increase of 1.6 million bpd in 2010. European sovereign debt crisis, Arab Spring and earthquake in Japan were the major factors which kept a lid on world oil demand growth. The recovery in 2011 and 2010 came after a steep decline in 2009 by 1.4 million bpd and a slight decline in 2008, the Global report said.

The decline in 2008 was the first fall in oil demand since 1983 reflecting the impact of the global financial crisis and the ensuing recession. The global financial system is going through turbulence with debt crisis in Europe taking the center stage. The impact of the crisis manifested itself in Western Europe Oil demand which declined by 0.16 million bpd reflecting the impact of the austerity measures.

World oil demand is expected to increase by 1.21 percent to 88.9 million bpd. Bulk of the world oil demand growth is expected to come from China, Latin America and the Middle East region. Increase in China's oil demand is expected to contribute around 40 percent to the total oil demand growth in 2012. Fears of hard landing in China have faded with inflation in China coming down to 4.2 percent in November and a cut in reserve requirement for banks, indicating a change in focus by policy makers, the Global report said.