The Annual Shale Gas Technology & Equipment Event
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As China's economy has gradually stabilized, the running heat of the oil industry economy rebounded. The oil industry's production grew steadily, the sales significantly recovered, the employment in enterprises maintained a rapid growth and profitability tended to improve. However, the foundation of the economic growth of the oil industry is not solid, and there still exists the uncertainty of running fluctuation.
Prosperity terminated dropping and began to be stabilized
In the fourth quarter of 2012, CE Oil Industry Prosperity Index was 98.4 (take the growth level of 2003 as 100), which was almost the same level of the previous quarter, ending a decline trend of five consecutive quarters, terminating the drop trend.
Among the six indicators constituted CE Oil Industry Prosperity Index, the year-on-year growth rate of the five indicators, namely, import and export total volume of the oil industry, the total taxes, the main business income, total profit and the number of employed people in oil industry increased compared with the previous quarter; the year-on-year growth rate of the total investment of fixed assets in oil industry declined compared with the previous quarter.
Further eliminating the random factors, CE Oil Industry Prosperity Index was 97.4, with a decline of 1 point compared with the prosperity index without the random factors being eliminated. This indicates that the policy factors have played a certain role in supporting the stabilization of the oil industry prosperity.
The warning index returned into the "green light zone"
In the fourth quarter, CE Oil Industry Warning Index was 86.7, increasing 3.4 points compared with the previous quarter; it terminated a colder state in two consecutive quarters and rebounded into "green light zone" that indicates a normal running.
A steady growth in production
In the fourth quarter, the Synthetic Index of oil industry production was 99.8 (take the growth level of 2003 as 100), with an increase of 0.6 points over the third quarter. Market demand picked up, increasing the willingness of production to some extent.
After a preliminary seasonal adjustment, the natural crude oil production was 52.745 million tons, which met a year-on-year growth of 6.8 percent and the growth rate increased by 6.3 points compared with the third quarter, while the quarter-on-quarter growth was 1.7 percent; the natural gas production was 26.72 billion cubic meters, which met a year-on-year growth of 6.3 percent and the growth rate altered from downward to upward, while the quarter-on-quarter growth was 9.9 percent; the gasoline production was 23.893 million tons, which met a year-on-year growth of 15.9 percent and the growth rate increase by 6.7 points compared with the previous quarter, while the quarter-on-quarter growth was 9.6 percent; the kerosene production was 5.683 million tons, which met a year-on-year growth of 18.4 percent and the growth rate increased by 11.6 points compared with the previous quarter, while the quarter-on-quarter growth was 9.3 percent; the diesel production was 43.202 million tons, which met a year-on-year growth of 5 percent and the growth rate altered from downward to upward, while the quarter-on-quarter growth was 5.5 percent.
Sales got significantly warmer
After a preliminary seasonal adjustment, the main business income of China's oil industry in the fourth quarter was RMB1.20398 trillion yuan, which met a year-on-year growth of 9.7 percent and the growth rate increased by 8 points compared with the previous quarter, while the quarter-on-quarter growth was 9.3 percent.
In the fourth quarter, the year-on-year growth rate of both oil industry production and the main business income rebounded from the bottom, and the market demand and activity had experienced a significant recovery. The recovery of domestic economy heated the demand in oil market, while the year-on-year growth rate of main business income also terminated the decline in five consecutive quarters and showed an obvious signs of stabilization.
Import and export switched to increase from decrease
After a preliminary seasonal adjustment, the total import and export volume of the oil industry in the fourth quarter was US$68.59 billion, which met a year-on-year growth of 8.5 percent and the growth rate switched to year-on-year growth from a year-on-year decline in four consecutive quarters. In the fourth quarter, the year-on-year growth rate of total imports and exports of the oil industry reversed the downward trend since the fourth quarter of 2011, and created the largest quarter growth range in two recent years.
Prices stopped falling and rose again
In the fourth quarter, the overall level of the producer ex-factory price in oil industry rose by 3.4 percent year on year, which switched to a year-on-year rise from the year-on-year decline in the previous quarter. With the stabilization of the domestic economy, the prices of the major domestic petrochemical products terminated the decline trend in four consecutive quarters.
Profitability gradually got better
After a preliminary seasonal adjustment, the total profit of the oil industry in the fourth quarter was RMB88.04 billion yuan, with a year-on-year growth of 14.6 percent and a quarter-on-quarter decline of 7.4 percent.
In the fourth quarter of 2012, CE Oil Industry Prosperity Index was 98.4, which terminated a drop in five consecutive quarters and showed a trend of stopping drop and stabilizing; CE Oil Industry Warning Index was 86.7, rebounding to run in the normal "green light zone".
According to estimates, the profit rate of oil industry sales in the fourth quarter was 7.3 percent, and declined 1.3 points compared with the previous quarter; the decrease range widened and it was higher than the profit rate of the total industrial sales by 0.8 points.
Investment turned from upward to downward
After a preliminary seasonal adjustment, the total investment in fixed assets of the oil industry in the fourth quarter was RMB132.03 billion yuan, which met a 6 percent year-on-year decline and the growth rate turned from upward to downward, while the quarter-on-quarter decline was 8.2 percent.
From the point of investment structure, from January to November of 2012, the cumulative investment of national oil and gas exploration completed a total of RMB191.83 billion yuan, which met a year-on-year growth of 4.5 percent, declining 2.5 points compared with that from January to August; the cumulative investment of petroleum processing, coking and nuclear fuel processing industry completed RMB197.39 billion yuan, which met a year-on-year growth of 10.9 percent, declining 5.9 points compared with that from January to August, and all the growth rates fell. On the whole, the entrepreneurs remained cautious on the industry investment, and the year-on-year decline trend of the investment also indicates that the industrial structure adjustment has achieved initial success.
A steady and rapid growth in employment
After a preliminary seasonal adjustment, by the end of the fourth quarter, the number of employees of the oil industry was 1.641 million, which increased 25,000 compared with the previous quarter and saw a year-on-year growth of 8.4 percent; the growth rate increased by 1.2 points compared with the previous quarter and it was higher than industry average level by 6.8 points, indicating that the oil industry has a relatively exuberant labor demand.
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